Just about six months ago, most people who knew politics were believing that Narendra Modi will also win 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, these people know that the victory would not be as big as 2014 and it is more likely that the BJP will not got a clear majority on its own. But it was strongly believed that Narendra Modi would again become the Prime Minister with the support of the allies. The people who were thinking about it were reviewing the splitting of the Maha Gathbandhan in Bihar. Nitish Kumar coming back to BJP was considered as a major reason for the BJP’s potential success in 2019.
The way Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party coalition took place in Gorakhpur and Phulpur in Uttar Pradesh and by the results of kairana bypoll, BJP lost the three seats from the loksabha, and opposition got a new strength. In Uttar Pradesh, the alliance of SP, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal seems almost certain.There are great possibilities of Congress to join it.
In Uttar Pradesh, BJP got 71 seats in 2014 and its allies won two seats. But after the formation of the new Alliance, everyone is convinced that BJP’s seats will be very low for majority. There are different opinions about how low it will be. Even if you do not count the losses of other states, the BJP may lose only such seats from Uttar Pradesh that it may not have a clear majority in the Lok Sabha as a single party.
Now, the question arises is, what Modi-Shah duo can do to form BJP Government in 2019? Based on the conversation with many political analysts and political people, these five things came out:
Expansion Of NDA
Importance of National Democratic Alliance i.e. NDA was known just after the results of the 2014 elections, when the BJP got a clear majority on its own. The leaders of the allies were given the place in the government but, the general impression is that they were not given the powerful ministry and they were also not involved in many decision making platforms. Due to this, continuous dissatisfaction was seen within the BJP’s colleagues.
Along With national issues BJP will also emphasis on regional issues
The common perception about BJP is that it fights local elections on national issues. Whereas the opposition has made the BJP brimming with regional issues. Its latest example is the Kairana by-election in western Uttar Pradesh. Here the BJP tried to fight on an issue of Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s Aligarh Muslim University, and the Lok Dal got the stakes in the problem of sugarcane farmers. That is why it is being said that BJP should keep a national vision, but take local issues to its election campaign. It is also said that the opposition is moving forward on the strategy to give priority to local issues.
BJP Might Give Importance To Local Leaders
BJP have been fighting every election in the name of Narendra Modi and this strategy has given the party extraordinary success. But in the way the Congress is giving fight to the largest party for 2019 Lok Sabha elections, local leaders will have special significance in their respective states. In this way, political analysts believe that the BJP should keep Narendra Modi’s face forward but also give importance to the local leaders of his allies, so that the strategy of the opposition can be met.
Importance to the Backward section
In the manner in which the Maha coalition appears to be shaping up in Uttar Pradesh, it is believed that the alliance will take aggressive politics of the backward class. Minorities will naturally live in the alignment of the alliance, therefore, according to the experts, it does not need to show aggression, because doing so can help BJP get the benefit of polarization. But on the issues of backwardness, the alliance will be aggressive and try to surround the BJP.
If the BJP has to compete with it, then it will have to stand with the backward sections of the society. The experts believe that talking about the backwards issue in the air will not help BJP in any way. In the sharing of tickets, BJP will have to give a fair representation to the backward leaders. Some people are also suggesting leadership change, i.e. suggesting that the chief minister should be replaced in a state like Uttar Pradesh to counter the alliance. They believe that the party should chief minister of backward section. But before the elections, the risk of leadership change can be seen as a tremor.
BJP should try to divide the Maha Gathbandhan
It is believed that the Uttar Pradesh Maha gathbandhan is standing between the BJP and the victory of 2019 Lok Sabha elections.Maha gathbandhan have alleged that the BJP is constantly trying to break SP-BSP alliance. It is the opinion of every political person that if some kind of Maha gathbandhan gets derailed and SP-BSP picks different elections, the BJP will get the most benefit from the split of votes. In such a scenario, most political people believe that if the Modi-Shah duo wants to be convinced of the victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, then they should try to divide the general alliance.
LS SEAT PREDICTION 2019 Election
Although to early to answer but yes projection of 350 plus shown by Mr. Shah seems to be quite difficult. To be precise, it seems 280 can be a real count after putting all the efforts by team Modi. Following are the main reason for my belief.
Rural economy is not doing that great which comprises of your major vote bank.
Perception of Modi being the greatest political Leader in Indian history is losing its momentum.
Congress is so far successful in projecting that BJP is quite offensive towards SC & ST with regards to its policy, athough which is not true.
No major relief to Middle class in various budgets which are considered to be traditionally BJP voters.
Upper class & business community which are traditional BJP voters, always have lower voter turnout.
Few main Points in favours of BJP
Still Mr. Modi being the tallest political leader in current era, without any match or competition.
No Major scam against the current government .
Belief among voters that these government can take tuff decisions if required.
Way religious conversion and minority appeasement had happened in past 60 years, majority is going to vote for BJP.